Hey All,
Fall camps for the NFL and College football are in full swing. Oh, and the full on awkwardness that was Pac 12 Media day has passed. Time now for a closer look at the schedules of the Pac 12 and the Big Ten. We still miss you, Tom Kelly.
Pac 12
Current Members: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Utah , Washington, Washington State.
Top Five Non Conference Games for 2021
9/3- Utah at Florida: This is a rare non-cupcake game for Utes. Their whole season is on the line here right away. Utah is making noises about a CFP run. Florida is not expected to be great this year. If the Utes lay an egg in The Swamp, they can all but kiss the CFP goodbye. This is just the second meeting between the two schools. Florida came from behind to beat the Utes, 38-29 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium back in 1977.
9/3- Oregon v Georgia (Atlanta, GA): This "neutral site" game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium pits the Quacks and their new HC Dan Lanning v. the defending National Champs. Oh, and did I mention that Lanning was Georgia's DC the last few years? If this game becomes the second half of an 0-2 day for the Pac 12 v. the SEC, then the Pac 12 will be all but written off from the CFP.
9/10- Arizona State at Oklahoma State: The Tempe Dumpster Fire takes on The Mullet. This game has the potential for ugly uniforms, bizarre coaching moves and general chaos. This intrepid reporter thinks this will end up being one of those sneaky good, fun to watch games. These teams have met three times before with Okie State whipping the Sun Devils, 45-3 in 1984 behind the legs of Thurman Thomas and the arm of Rusty Hilger. ASU won the the next two games in 1991 and 1993.
9/17- Michigan State at Washington: Neither team should be challenged in their first two games, so this game is a definite state of the program check for both squads. UW HC Kalen DeBoer would like to grab his first signature win on Montlake while the Spartans look for momentum towards making a Big Ten East title run. This is only the third meeting between the two teams and the first since the 1997 Aloha Bowl where the Huskies worked over the Spartans, 51-23. MSU's only win v. UW came in 1969 at East Lansing. Here's some film of that 27-11 Spartans win. Wishbones and 8 man fronts
11/26- Notre Dame at USC: Two new HCs get their first taste of the Greatest Intersectional Rivalry in College Football. If both teams live up to their hype, this could be a de facto CFP elimination game. All I know is that I want the Shillelagh back.
Intriguing Pac 12 Non Conference Games
9/10- Mississippi State at Arizona: HC Mike Leach makes a return to a Pac 12 field when he brings his Bulldogs to Tucson. More important than The Pirate's return may be the fact that an SEC team will actually play a true non-conference road game in the western half of the country. The last time the Bulldogs came this far west they were whipped, 36-13 by Oregon, back in 2002. In case you were wondering, MSU has only been to California twice. The Bulldogs played University of San Francisco at Kezar Stadium in 1941 and 1947, winning both games. The Bulldogs 26-13 win 1941was quickly forgotten as it was played on December 6th.
9/10- Oregon State at Fresno State: The Beavers want to build on the success they've had the last two seasons and getting a win at Fresno St. would be good for the program. OSU holds an 8-5 series edge over the Bulldogs. Last time they faced each other was in 2003 in Fresno where the Bulldogs held on for a 16-14 win.
Bonus fact: Every current school in the Pac 12 has squared off against the Fresno State. However, USC, UCLA and Washington have never played a game at Fresno.
11/26- BYU at Stanford: Is this just an open date scheduling thing or is BYU trying to copy Notre Dame and play a game in California every year? Either way, it will be interesting to see how BYU handles Stanford's physical playing style.
Top Five Pac 12 Conference Games
9/24- Stanford at Washington- If you want to see the Pac 12 race take an early turn, then a Stanford win over the Huskies does the trick. Both team will come into this game after a very physical contest the week before as Stanford hosts SC and the Huskies host Michigan State. Both teams could be in desperation mode if they lose the those games. Also, a Stanford loss would make them 0-2 in the league and out of the Pac 12 title hunt. So expect both teams to really be ready form this one.
10/1- Oregon State at Utah: Huh? This reporter just has a hunch that these two will play this game like a fight in a phone booth. Utah could get caught looking ahead to a trip to UCLA the next week, while OSU will be coming off hosting USC. So the Beavers will either be sky high off upsetting SC or angry as heck after losing to the Trojans. Either way, the Beavers will be bringing a lot of emotions and maybe their best team in years to Utah.
10/15- USC at Utah: This game will go a long way towards deciding who will play in the league title game. You know that the Utes have had this date circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out. A win validates all that Utah has done to build their program since joining the Pac 12. For USC, a big road win resets the order of things in the league.
11/12- Washington at Oregon: Unless Stanford makes a move this year, this is the big game up north. Oregon will need every win and in impressive fashion to stay relevant the national scene. The Huskies would love to set the tone for a new era with a big road win.
Bonus Fact: Don't kick the Dawgs; In 1973, Oregon smashed the Huskies, 58-0. UW would win next year's game, 66-0 and go on to win 11 of their next 12 matchups with the Quacks.
11/19- USC at UCLA: If SC gets by the big hurdle of Utah and UCLA sails through their soft schedule, this will be the game that will most likely decide who gets a berth in the Pac 12 title game. However, there are no divisions in the league this year, so it is also quite likely that these two could meet two weeks later in the title game. That would be the first time USC would play UCLA twice in the same since wartime travel restrictions led to the school's playing two games a year from 1943-45.
Off The Radar Good Pac 12 Game
10/1- Colorado at Arizona: If I'm wrong here, it will only cost you the time to delete this from your list of recorded games. Outside of last year's 34-0 Buffs blowout win, these two have played some tight, entertaining games over the years.
Who They Don't Play- Pac 12
USC: Oregon and Washington
UCLA: Oregon State and Washington State
Arizona: Oregon State and Stanford
Arizona State: Oregon and California
California: Arizona State and Utah
Stanford: Arizona and Colorado
Oregon: Arizona State and USC
Oregon State: Arizona and UCLA
Washington: USC and Utah
Washington State: UCLA and Colorado
Colorado: Stanford and Washington State
Utah: California and Washington
Observations
...Dream Schedule; UCLA's non conference slate is Charmin soft with Bowling Green, Alabama State and South Alabama all making trips to Pasadena. They also only play four road games and all their tough conference games are home games except for a trip to Eugene on 10/22. However, UCLA will have a bye week to prepare for the trip. If they don't win at least 10 games, heads should roll in Westwood.
...Nightmare Schedule; Stanford does get a cupcake in hosting Colgate to start the year, but their other two non conference games are at Notre Dame and hosting BYU. In the league, the Cardinal do not play either of the Pac 12's cellar dwellers Colorado and Arizona. They also play five brutal Pac 12 road games. They play at Oregon, Washington, Utah, UCLA and Cal.
...Two Bay Area themed tailgates; Notre Dame will host both Cal and Stanford this year. That may mean there will be more charcuterie trays made than midwestern folks have ever seen.
...CU is doing it wrong; Part of being in a Power 5 conference is that you get just about everyone to come play at your place for non conference games. The Buffs have September road games at Air Force on 9/10 and Minnesota on 9/17. They are the only Pac 12 team with two away non conference games.
...A big tough 0; Arizona opens up at SDSU on 9/3 where the Aztecs are opening their new stadium. Then they host Mississippi State on 9/10. The Wildacats top off their non conference slate by hosting the Alpha Dogs of the FCS, North Dakota State. An 0-3 start looks like a definite possibility for the Bear Down Boys.
...Two trophy chance; USC HC Lincoln Riley has the opportunity to win back the Victory Bell and the Shillelagh in his first year on the job. Both trophies have been around since 1952 and four times SC's new HC has had a shot to accomplish the feat. None of them did. John McKay, Larry Smith and Steve Sarkisian all went 1-1 with John Robinson going 0-2 in his second stint at Troy.
Big Ten
Current Members
East Division: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers.
West Division: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Top Five Non Conference Games for 2021
1. 9/3- Notre Dame at Ohio State: Nothing like a battle of true college football blue bloods to start the season! College Gameday will be there and The Horseshoe will be rockin' for sure. New ND HC Marcus Freeman will get a baptism by fire in week one. Can he have his team ready to pull an upset over TheeeOSU HC Ryan Day's loaded buckeye squad? It will be really fun to find out. Whoever loses this one will face an uphill battle to get back into the CFP picture. However, the road will be harder for ND to travel because at least the Buckeyes would still have a league title to play for. Hmmmmmm, now only if ND had a conference that they could join in more than a loose affiliate sort of way? Hmmmmmm. As for series history, these two have only met six times and two of those meetings were in the Fiesta Bowl. TheeeOSU holds a 4-2 series edge with ND's two wins coming in 1935 and '36. The first meeting in 1935 was one of those "Game of the Century" affairs where QB Bill Shakespeare of ND came off the bench and led the Irish to a 18-13 comeback victory.
2. 9/17- Penn State at Auburn: This is the flip side of the home-and-home series between these two that started last year when the Nittany Lions topped the Tigers, 28-20 in Happy Valley. PSU heads to Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on an Auburn squad in a bit of disarray. HC Bryan Harrison committed the sin last year of going just 6-7 in his first year on the job. He has since survived one try from folks trying to have him fired and is listed as being on the hot seat in almost every football publication in the country. Ahh, you've got to love the SEC's brand of patience. If PSU comes in and tames the Tigers, it will give great boost to the Big Ten as well as the Lions. A PSU win would also have Auburn boosters talking buyout packages. Wow.
3. 9/17- Oklahoma at Nebraska: For a ton of years this was Thanksgiving weekend appointment television. In those old days of OU's Power Wishbone tangling with Nebraska's Power I-Option. This game was usually played in bad weather with the Big 8 title on the line. At least that's how I remember it while I was usually wondering if the late seasons Santas Ana winds would mean it was 80 degrees or more for either the UCLA or ND game here in Los Angeles. New OU HC Brent Venables would love to watch his Sooners dismantle the Cornhuskers. I think they will. I don't give Nebraska much of a chance to win this one.
4. 9/24- Indiana at Cincinnati: This game is huge for Indiana. HC Tom Allen is a mediocre 26-32 in six years on the job. He did take the Hoosiers to bowl games in 2019 and 2020, but 2021 was a 2-10 disaster of a year. Allen needs this win over a strong Bearcat squad to gain momentum for their Big Ten slate. Cincy is coming off their great 13-1 showing last year and will be down a little, but will they be down enough to lose to Indiana? Doubtful, that's doubtful at best.
5. 9/3- North Dakota at Nebraska: This game has the makings of a big fat embarrassing loss for the Cornhuskers. Yes, North Dakota is and FCS team that went just 5-6 last year in the Missouri Valley Conference, but this will be their first game that they have been looking forward to all off season. Nebraska will be coming off a week zero game on 8/27 v. Northwestern in Dublin, Ireland. So, the Huskers could be severely jetlagged and possibly depressed after a loss to the Wildcats.
Intriguing Big Ten Non Conference Games
1. 9/3- South Dakota State at Iowa: The Jackrabbits made it to the FCS semifinals last year and will have a lot of confidence heading to Iowa City. They could catch a sluggish, Hawkeye team napping and pull off a huge upset.
2. 9/10- Georgia Southern at Nebraska: This one is on here for the simple hope of watching Nebraska throttle Clay Helton's Eagles. Then again, the Huskers could just totally blow it too. That's what makes it intriguing.
Top Five Big Ten Conference Games
1. 10/15- Penn State at Michigan: Despite Michigan making it to the CFP last year, it's hard to not have TheeeOSU as the East Division favorite. This pundit believes that Michigan State is still a year away from a shot at the division crown. That leaves the Nittany Lions and the Wolverines as the only other contenders to challenge the Buckeyes. This winner of this game will most likely have all of their lofty preseason goals in tact, while the loser is stuck trying to sell Outback Bowl tickets.
2. 11/12- Wisconsin at Iowa: This is the game that will decide who becomes the West Division champ. The Badgers have won eight of their last 10 against the Hawkeyes, but did lose at Iowa City two years ago. What hampers the Badgers chances here is the fact that they have only eight total returning starters, including kickers. Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play for first timers.
3. 8/27- Nebraska v. Northwestern (Dublin, Ireland): Aer Lingus has sponsored this week zero game. Why play this game at this time and place? All the hype and hoopla over it is easily erased if you're the loser of this game and find yourself 0-1 in the Big Ten race a few days before September arrives. Facepalm.
4. 11/5- Iowa at Purdue: Wisconsin is being touted as the class of the West Division, but Iowa has a more favorable schedule. That said, the Hawkeyes have lost four other last five games to the Boilermakers. If the Hawkeyes want to have a real shot at the Big Ten title game, they need a tough road win here.
5. 9/24- Minnesota at Michigan State: It's PJ Fleck's sixth year in Minneapolis and folks want to know if this guy can really get his team to row the boat. A bad loss here to a Spartan squad on the upswing would crush the Golden Gopher's chances for a division crown quickly. However, a win would make the rest of the Big Ten take notice.
Note: The Ohio-State Michigan game is always huge, just didn't feel a need to enforce that point again.
Off the Radar Good Big Ten Game
10/15- Indiana at Maryland: Five of the last six games between these two have been decided by six points or less. Plenty of offense to see in these games too. Both teams usually reach 30+ points and the games go down to the wire. It's worth a watch.
Observations
...Dream Schedule; Ohio State. The Buckeyes get all their tough games at home. They also only play four road games. Yes, they do travel to Penn State, but are 6-1 in their last seven games at Happy Valley. They travel to Michigan State, but have only dropped three games in East Lansing in the last 35 years. Their other road games are to Northwestern and Maryland where they've lost one game in Evanston since 1964 and have never lost at College Park.
...Nightmare Schedule; Michigan State. The Spartans have a six games in seven weeks stretch that includes road trips to opposite ends of the country as they travel to Washington and Maryland while also hosting Minnesota, TheeeOSU, and Wisconsin with a tip to Michigan thrown in a the end. They also play their final game of the regular season at Penn State.
...Tough Double; Indiana gets back-to-back road trips to TheeeOSU and Michigan on 11/12 and 11/19.
...The 4M Corporation; We all know the 3M stands for Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing, but Rutgers gets the 4M tag for playing four of their last five games against Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State and Maryland.
...A State of September State of Mind; Wisconsin opens up September with three straight home game v. Illinois State, Washington State, and New Mexico State and finishes off the month at Ohio State.
...Just a rumor; There's no truth to the rumor that the team that wins the Duke-Northwestern game on 9/10 will automatically receive bonus points on either the MCAT, LSAT or Series 7 Stock Broker's Exam.
This Week's Three Notes About Nothing...
The Dog Days of Summer have arrived and with that comes monsoonal moisture and humidity. Yuk.
August 10th is National S'mores Day. Celebrate well my friends.
It always amazes me how quiet it is at times on the busy street on which I live.
Until Next Time Folks, anyone can have a great fall camp, it's how you play when the guys in other uniforms show up that counts.
-The Commissioner
