Hey All,
As the fall camps open, it's time for a look at the schedules in the Big Ten and SEC in this edition of Notes on a Pac 12 Scorecard. We still miss you, Tom Kelly.
The Big Ten
Conference Members:
East Division- Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State and Rutgers.
West Division- Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin.
The league remains unchanged for 2017.
Top Five Out of Conference Games for 2017
9/2- Maryland at Texas: This game isn't really that big for the Big Ten or even for Maryland. Maryland is just happy Rutgers is around so they don't look so bad. This game is big for USC fans. It's worth watching to see how prepared Tom Herman has his Longhorns for their first game. Texas doesn't have the option of showing only part of their play book, then working on game two with an easy win. Herman needs a big win right away too show he was the right choice. While we won't see the whole Texas offense and defense, more of it will be available to see than one would normally get from an opener.
9/9- Nebraska at Oregon: It's Mike Riley's third year at Nebraska and he just can't escape the Ducks. It'll be his 15th time facing the Quacks. His experience with the environment at Autzen Stadium will help his team in their prep for the game. Riley's team should be ready to breakout this year and challenge Wisconsin for the division title. A big win at Oregon would be a great confidence builder for the Huskers. This game is Oregon's first real test under new HC Willie Taggart as the Ducks host Southern Utah out of the Big Sky Conference for their season opener. The Huskers have the advantage of being in their third year under Riley, while the Men of Oregon will be in just game two with Taggart. However, UO has the overall experience edge with 17 returning starters as opposed to NU's 10 returnees. UO should be favored to win this one, but NU can pull off the road victory.
9/9- Minnesota at Oregon State: This game is the first real test for PJ Fleck's Gophers. They should have a win under their belts after taking on a hapless Buffalo squad in their home opener. They will face a Beaver team that will already have played two games. The Gophers walked away with a 30-23 win over the Beavers at home last year. The talent is there for the Gophers to win this one on the road, but first road games with a new HC are always rough. I think the Beavers pull out a squeaker.
9/16- Wisconsin at BYU: The Badgers don't play a lot of non conference away games. They've lost the last two they did play back in 2012 and 2013 to Oregon State and ASU. That means this trip to Provo is significant for the Badgers. However, it may not be as tough as it looks. BYU isn't an easy mark, but they may be a little beat up for this game. In the two weeks leading up to the matchup, the Cougars will take on LSU in Houston then host Utah in the latest installment of the "Holy War." Meanwhile, Wisconsin strolls in after easy games with Utah State and FAU. I can easily see Wisconsin's OL wearing down the BYU defense and controlling the clock and by definition the game.
9/23- Notre Dame at Michigan State: This is big for the Spartans and the league as a whole. This is the Big Ten's lone shot at ND this year. The Spartans aren't exactly loaded this year and have had some off the field distractions as well. An upset by the Green and White would really lift the league in the eyes of the playoff committee.
Top Five Conference Games for 2017
(Note: I'd like to put the Michigan-Ohio State game on this list, but I have a tough time getting excited over a Wolverine team with only one returning starter on defense.)
8/31-Indiana at Ohio State: What the heck is this game doing on the list? It's there because it's a league game as the season opener for both teams. TheeeOSU should be favored to win this easily, but anything can happen in an opener. This game is a confidence crusher for the loser. It would really hurt to be 0-1 in conference play before September. The last time the Buckeyes opened up with a conference game was 1976 when they whipped Michigan State 49-21. The last time Indiana opened up this way was 1982. They hosted Northwestern, crushing the Wildcats, 30-0. Following that win, IU traveled to the Coliseum where USC beat them, 28-7. IU would go 5-6 in 1982 and their HC, Lee Corso, was fired at season's end.
9/30- Maryland at Minnesota: This is another one of those games that looks like it should not be here. It does for the PJ Fleck watchers. Like their game with Oregon State, this is another measuring stick game for the Gophers. The Terrapins are a pretty bad team. A blow out by the new-look Gophers would give promise to a season that's generally written off under a new HC in his first year at a school.
9/30- Northwestern at Wisconsin: This is the first big divisional test for each team. Northwestern should enter this game with a strong squad. A big win at Camp Randall will give them the inside track to the division title. Both teams have a bye going into this game, so they should be well prepared for each other. Wisconisn's formula to win will be the same as ever. Run the ball. Run it well. Control the clock and walk out with a tight win.
10/28- Penn State at Ohio State: This will be the game that decides the East Divison. The Nittany Lions have a ton of talent returning on offense. QB Trace McSorley and RB Saquon Barkley are a pretty powerful 1-2 punch which offsets a defense that gave up 25.4 points per game. That doesn't sound like much, but when compared to TheeeOSU's 15.5 PPG, it's a lot. J.T Barrett returns to lead a strong Buckeye attack. With this game being in Columbus, I don't think the Lions can repeat last year's miracle.
11/24- Iowa at Nebraska: If Nebraska wants to claim the Big Ten West title, they need to clear the Iowa hurdle. The Huskers have been up and down their first few years v. their divisional opponents in the league, but Iowa has beaten the Big Red three of the last four years. Iowa may only be good enough to be a spoiler team this year, but this may be the game that determines the division crown.
Big Ten Scheduling Observations
...Spartan Crucible; In a three week span, Michigan State will take on Notre Dame and Iowa at home and then travel to Michigan.
...Iowa strong; Iowa's Kirk Ferentz is in his 19th season as the HC of the Hawkeyes. The other six coaches in the Big Ten West are in their 22nd year combined as HCs in the league.
...A November G0pher; Minnesota's slate from 11/4-11/25 could be a rough one as they will go to Michigan, host Nebraska, hit the road to Northwestern, then finish up at home to face Wisconsin for the Paul Bunyan Axe.
...No 3s; No team in the Big Ten will play three straight road games in 2017.
...New York State of Mind; This year's Rutgers-Maryland game will be at Yankee Stadium.
...Purdon't; Purdue is just 6-35 in Big Ten play over the last five seasons and half those six wins came way back in 2012. Oh, and three of those six wins have come against Illinois.
The Southeastern Conference
Conference Members:
East Division- Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
West Division: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
The League remains unchanged for 2017
The Coaching Carousel; Nutt Busted or Hugh Freeze's Down and Out of Coaching Pattern (Whichever title you prefer)
Mississippi
OUT: Hugh Freeze
IN: Matt Luke
This intrepid reporter figured he would be writing about this next year. I thought the NCAA's findings from their investigation into Freeze's recruiting practices stemming from the Laremy Tunsil NFL draft day revelations back in 2016 would have gotten him fired. However, this all came down due to a civil action that was filed by former Ole Miss HC Houston Nutt against Ole Miss and Hugh Freeze. Nutt's lawsuit claimed in essence that the two parties had engaged in acts to defame Nutt. What Nutt claims is that Freeze and Ole Miss were trying to shift the stink of the NCAA investigation to Nutt, blaming the former coach for the whole situation. As part of the civil suit, Nutt's attorney requested Freeze's phone records from his university issued phone from early January 2016. Before turning the records over, Freeze was allowed to redact personal calls from those records. Evidently, he missed one. That one call was to an escort service. Nutt's lawyer, Thomas Mars, emailed Ole Miss' general counsel Lee Tyner telling him about the call. Mars said in the e-mail that Freeze made a phone call that would be, "highly embarrassing for all of you and extremely difficult to explain." When confronted by AD Ross Bjork, Freeze maintained that the call was just a misdial, a wrong number. Bjork didn't buy the explanation, and decided to investigate further. Bjork was quoted in a conference call on the resignation as saying, "Once we looked at the phone records we found a pattern. It was troubling." Freeze left with no buyout, no deal. He's gone and will not collect another dime of the 12 million plus left on his contract. The man left holding the bag to run the Rebels is OC Matt Luke. Although holding the bag isn't the right term here. He is key member of the coaching staff that is facing a ton of NCAA charges, including the dreaded "lack of institutional control" charge. The Rebels are already under a self-imposed bowl ban for 2017. You can be sure a great deal more will come out on this story in the near future as Ole Miss' hearing with the NCAA infractions committee is coming up soon.
Top Five Out of Conference Games
9/2- Michigan v Florida (Jerryworld, Arlington, TX): These two teams squared off in the Citrus Bowl two years ago. For the two HCs, Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain it was their first year as the HC at their respective schools. Harabugh's Wolverines whipped McElwain's Gators, 41-7 that day and hope to win again. Michigan holds a 3-0 overall record v the Gators, but this year Gators have the edge on the Maize Blue in a lot of areas. The biggest one is experience. I give a lot of value to returning starters in early games and that usually is pretty even in most cases, but not here. Michigan has only five total returning starters and only one on those is on defense. Meanwhile, the Gators return nine starters on offense. Their O-line is talented and deep. If Florida's experienced OL takes control of the line of scrimmage, it will be a long day for Jim Harbaugh's defense.
9/2 LSU v BYU (NRG Stadium, Houston, TX): LSU will be the favorite here and rightly so, but this will most likely not be a cakewalk for the Tigers. BYU is a solid squad with Tanner Mangum back at QB. The Cougars will have played a game already. BYU hosts Portland State on 8/26 then does a quick turnaround for this tilt. For LSU this game will be a good gauge as where they are coming out of fall camp and how they'll play under Ed Oregon. Being the beloved interim guy is one thing, but when the interim tag is removed, all that love turns into expectations. This is Coach O's second time at the helm of a program. The LSU faithful hope he has matured a bit and will do better in the bayou than at Ole Miss.
9/3 Texas A&M at UCLA: Last year, the bRuins were beaten in OT at Kyle Field. I hold it as one of my fondest memories of the USC-Alabama game last year due to the fact it was fun to watch my rival lose on the big screen at Jerryworld. Also, because there weren't a whole lot of good memories that followed. So now, the scene shifts to the Rose Bowl, where the Aggies have never played and UCLA merely rents space. We will find out early if Josh Rosen's shoulder has healed quickly. If he falters, backups Devon Modster and Dymond Lee would have two pick up the slack. For the Aggies, their offensive hopes are pinned on redshirt fresh Nick Starkel, Jr. The Aggies need to stop UCLA early and often in order to give their young signal caller a chance to get comfortable. If the Aggies have to play from behind early, it cold get ugly fast in Pasadena.
9/9 Georgia at Notre Dame: The last and only time these two teams have ever met was in the 1981 Sugar Bowl where a freshman RB named Herschel Walker led the Bulldogs to a 17-10 victory and the national title. For Georgia and the SEC this is a big game. A win over ND lifts the SEC and throws ND's season into chaos. ND's Brian Kelly has conducted a staff purge and is looking to return the Irish to form after a miserable 4-8 showing last year. The big matchup to watch in this game is Notre Dame's OL v. Georgia's defensive front. Each side of this matchup returns all but one starter. ND's OL is big and talented, while Georgia's DL is strong and their LB corps may be one of the nation's best. Whatever side wins this battle, should win the game.
9/16 Mississippi at California: Talk about a culture clash! I would love to see the looks on the Ole Miss fans as they take a stroll on Telegraph Avenue in the People's Republic of Berkeley. I would also like to see those same faces when they are told that Cal's Memorial Stadium sits right on an earthquake fault. For the Rebels this game is a first in many ways. This is their first game v. a Pac 12 team...ever. Going all the way back to the first incarnation of the Pacific Coast Conference, the Rebels have never played a league member. This only their second game v. a California school ever too. Back in 1971, Ole Miss hosted Long Beach State. They beat the 49ers, 29-13, behind the dual QB tandem of Kenny Lyons and Norris Weese. Stars for the LBSU side that day were RB Terry Metcalf and QBs JIm Fassel and Randy Drake. Both these teams come off of 5-7 records form last year and have new HCs. The two squads also share a a similar number of returning starters and defenses that gave up yardage by the acre last year. This game could be a fun-to-watch shootout or just an ugly, error filled affair. I give Cal the edge for being at home, but that's about all. I think it's a pickem game.
Top Five Conference Games
9/16- Tennessee at Florida: Last year the Volunteers snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Gators with 38-28 win in Knoxville. This year the Vols will be hard pressed to win at Gainesville. The Vols trip to Florida will be their third game in 13 days to start the season. Tennessee face Georgia Tech in Atlanta on 9/4 then hosts Indiana State on 9/9. Florida has a similar schedule, but will have two more days of rest entering the game. This game boils down to just how well Tennessee handles this timeline. This could be a really great game or Tennessee could just flat run out of gas and get blown away in the second half.
10/14- Auburn at LSU: This game shapes up to the be a playoff game for the right to face Alabama for the division crown. LSU has sorely lacked a passing game the last few years. One of the smartest things Ed Orgeron did when he took over as the interim HC was to send OC Cam Cameron packing along with Les Miles, (Cameron is one of the most overrated coaches of all-time.) Orgeron went out after the season and hired Matt Canada away from Pitt to be his OC. Canada's rep is that of an new-era offensive guru. If he can at least bring LSU's offense into the early 2000s it would make them a tough team. Auburn believes this is their year to dethrone Bama and play for the SEC crown. 15 starters return from last year's 8-5 Tigers. Auburn is a young team with experience as only five of their projected starting 22 are seniors. Many have slated AU has a team on the rise. I think those assessments may be true.
10/28- Georgia v. Florida (EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL): So, for another year this game will be played at The Jaguars him field by two teams better than the Jaguars. With Tennessee facing both of these teams in September, this may be the game that decides the SEC East race. If Florida wins they have smooth sailing the rest the way with just road trips doormats Missouri and South Carolins left in SEC play. Georgia still has a trip to Auburn to go with home dates with South Carolina and Kentucky. So, the Bulldogs would have a tougher time holding their advantage if they win. Should be a good one at the cocktail party this year.
11/11- Arkansas at LSU: The Razorbacks will be a fair-to-midland bunch this year. They will be good enough to scare a few folks and take advantage of their schedule. This game falls between road trips to Alabama and Tennessee for the Tigers. It's your basic trap game. This is also a Hogs squad that has taken two of the last three from the Bayou Bengals. Don't be surprised to see an upset here.
11/25- Alabama at Auburn: If Auburn lives up to the billing, this game will be for a trip to the SEC title game long with all the bragging rights usually associated with the Iron Bowl. If this comes to pass, I'm sure a ton of guards will be assigned to Toomer's Corner.
SEC Scheduling Observations
...Tough Double; On 9/30 and 10/7 Ole Miss makes road trips to Alabama an Auburn.
...Batting .250; Kentucky has an SEC worst record of 20-60 in conference play over the last 10 seasons. The Curse of Bear Bryant is alive and well in Lexington.
...FSU double; Alabama opens up with Florida State on 9/2, then hosts Fresno State on 9/9.
...Well, they looked FCS; Arkansas like like they had an FCS opponent in Coastal Carolina. Well, the Chanticleers have made the transition and will be play in the FBS as a member of the Sun Belt Conference in 2017.
...Bobby Lamb's phone will ring; Why will his phone ring? Who is he? He is the HC at Mercer University. Mercer takes on both Auburn and Alabama this year. I'm sure he'll be a popular interview during Iron Bowl week.
This Week's Three Notes About Nothing...
The smell of BBQ's in the neighborhood on a Sunday is a beautiful thing.
I like my new TV.
I miss Laura Scudder's Sour Cream and Onion Potato chips.
Until next time folks, remember that a dull fall camp is a good fall camp.
-The Commissioner
