Monday, July 23, 2018

Schedules Part I

Hey All,

It is time to delve into the schedules of the Power 5 Conferences.  This week we will take a look at the ACC and the Big XII.

ACC
The Atlantic Coast Conference looks the same as last year with 14 full time members split into two divisions and a part-time member in Notre Dame.  Here's how the divisions stack up.

Atlantic Division
Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina State, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Coastal Division
Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Top Five Out of Conference Games for 2018

9/1- Louisville v. Alabama (Camping World Classic, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL): Louisville comes into this game with less meetings v. Bama (3) than their current HC Bob Petrino has (4).  However, Petrino is 0-4 lifetime against the Crimson Tide with an average margin of loss of 20 points per game.  This game could look pretty similar to the others for Harley Bob.  Louisville is in a rebuilding mode and will face Bama with a new QB as 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson is off to play the Sunday game. This game could get ugly early, if new Cardinals QB Jawon Pass looks like every other new QB has looked v. the Bama defense in the Saban era.

9/1 Penn State at Pittsburgh:  This is arguably the ACC's biggest game against the Big Ten this year.  This old school Pennsylvania rivalry goes back to the independent days of both schools.  The matchup that matters in this game is Pitt's offense which only has four returning starters v. Penn State's defense which only has three returnees. A Panther victory could weaken the Big Ten's standing in the national discussion if the Panthers pull off the upset.

9/1 North Carolina at California: Huh? Why?  Well, this is the ACC's only west coast trip and a win by the Tar Heels helps solidifies the ACC as a strong conference. To beat a Cal team that is to be much improved in their second year under HC Justin Wilcox would really help the Tar Heels as well as the ACC as a whole.

9/2- Miami v. LSU (AdvoCare Classic, Jerryworld, Arlington, TX): LSU holds a 9-3 edge in the series between these schools, but this will be only their third meeting in the last 30 years. LSU beat Miami both on and off the field the last time they met. Back in the 2005 Peach Bowl, the Bayou Bengals beat the Canes 40-3 and then won the postgame fight in the tunnel after the game.  Two Miami players were knocked unconscious and others were sent to the hospital in the melee.  This year's clash should be a tough one with both teams trying to claw back to national prominence.  Whoever wins would have leg up in that process.  Also, Miami HC Mark Richt would love to get another win over a former conference foe from his time at Georgia.

9/8- Clemson at Texas A&M:  Overall the Aggies hold a 3-1 series edge over Clemson but lost their last meeting between these two back in 2005. On that day,  the Aggies fell to the Tigers, 25-24 at Death Valley. For Clemson, it's their first chance to make a statement that they will once again be in the hunt for the national title with an impressive win over the new-look Aggies led by former FSU HC Jimbo Fisher.

Top Five Conference Games for 2018

9/3- Virginia Tech at Florida State: Not much on the line here for new FSU HC Willie Taggart.  All he has to do is show that FSU is back from their horrendous 2017 campaign with a big win over a tough conference foe in week one.  VaTech comes in here in their third year under HC Justin Fuente who has gone 19-8 while rebuilding the program after it had fallen off lately.  The Hokies are talented and have the ability to pull off the early season win in Tallahassee.  One thing for sure is that the loser of this game will be 0-1 in conference play on Labor Day. Ouch.

9/27- North Carolina at Miami:  The Tar Heels seem to be the hipster pick to challenge the Hurricanes in the Coastal Division.  This game, being on a Thursday night makes it seem like UNC can come in and shake up the Canes on a short week.  This game will be sloppy and ugly as most Thursday nighters are, but the Canes should be coming in off a laugher with FIU while UNC will have just hosted Pitt.  The U should pull away in the second half and dump the Heels.

11/10- North Carolina at Duke: Hey, it's the big rivalry of Tobacco Road.  It also happens to be a key game in the division.  Duke has taken four of the last six form UNC, but faces an uphill road in this one as the Tar Heels are the sandwich game in a brutal three game stretch where the Blue Devils find themselves at Miami, hosting UNC, then traveling to Clemson. Both teams need this win for bowl positioning in the league.

10/27- Clemson at Florida State:  If the chalk holds here, this is the game that will decide who will win the Atlantic Division.  For the Tigers it's the front end of a two week stretch where they travel to FSU then host Louisville.  Clearing this hurdle would guarantee Clemson a spot in the league title game.  For FSU, it's the start of a stretch run that also features a stop at Notre Dame and a season finale at home against Florida.

11/17- Miami at Virginia Tech: The Canes were wiped out on their last trip to Blacksburg in Mark Richt's first year at the helm.  Now, he returns in year three with a Canes team that is touted to make the leap back to the elite level this season.  A win here would mark that progress.  VaTech is looking for the exact same thing in HC Justin Fuente's third season.  This should be a great game.

ND's Loose Affiliation
Here's the slate of Notre Dame's games in the ACC this year...

9/22- Notre Dame at Wake Forest
10/6- Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
10/13- Pitt at Notre Dame
11/10- Florida State at Notre Dame
11/17- Syracuse v. Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium

Not an easy draw for the Irish as they get both FSU and VaTech, but their game at Yankee Stadium looks interesting.*

*Comissioner's Old Man "Get off my lawn!" moment:  Why are teams scheduling football games at baseball parks?  Any of us who grew up in the Multipurpose Stadium era knows just how awful football can look in a baseball yard.  Note to AD's across the country: Knock It Off!!!!!

Clemson: Doubling up on the Triple Option

Georgia Tech runs a form of the Triple Option.  Very few teams run this offense and that creates problems for modern defenses. First, teams rarely play against it. So, there's little to no familiarity with it for opponents.   Secondly, most modern teams don't have the scout team personnel to run the offense effectively. That means that defenses don't get a good enough look at it in practice to stop it effectively on game day.  It is also a clock consuming attack. Teams facing it only get about 2/3 of their normal amount of possessions. These factors lead to the Yellow Jackets being very competitive in league play and puling off a couple of upsets each season.  It now looks like Clemson has found a simple way to lessen their chances of suffering such an upset this year.  Clemson plays Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech on back-to-back weeks in September.  Georgia Southern also runs the Triple Option.  This means that the immensely talented Clemson defense gets a tune up game against a far weaker team that runs basically the same offense.

Big XII
The Big XII remains unchanged from 2017 with 10 league members:
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia.

Top Five Out of Conference Games for 2018

9/1- West Virginia v. Tennessee (Belk College Kickoff, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC): This is the first meeting between these schools.  The Mountaineers are getting the hang of the neutral site thing.  This will be their third neutral site opener in the last five years. Tennessee comes into this one on a nine-game winning streak in opening games.  A win would set up WVa for their next non conference test two weeks later at North Carolina State. A win for the Vols would help new HC Jeremy Pruitt start out on the right foot with that insane bunch known as Volunteer Nation.

9/8- UCLA at Oklahoma: OU owns a 3-1 edge over the bRuins but did lose the last time these teams met back in 2005.  One thing that is evident from the history of this series is that none of the games have been close.  UCLA's win was by 17 points and the Sooners wins have been by an average of 30 points per game. A lot of eyes will be on the bRuins to see how Chip's charges fare in a hostile road environment. It could get ugly early in Norman if the Sooners come out strong.

9/15- USC at Texas: The Longhorns, in their first season under HC Tom Herman, came very close to pulling off the upset at the Coliseum last year. Under strong fire from the SC defense, Freshman QB Sam Ehlinger played tough and put Texas ahead late.  SC pulled out the huge win with some heroics from SC QB Sam Darnold. The Longhorns want to get revenge for the win they thought they'd pulled off last year and take a big step towards national relevance with a victory.

9/15- TCU V. Theee Ohio State (AdvoCare Showdown at Jerryworld, Arlington, TX): Theee OSU owns a 4-1-1 edge over the Frogs with all games in this series being played in Columbus.  The Buckeyes should feel right at home going back to Arlington where they dismantled USC in the Cotton Bowl last December.  For TCU, this game is the first of a pretty tough double as they open up conference play the following week at Texas.  TCU has a young OL and a new QB in Shawn Robinson. Word is Robinson isn't that accurate but can run well. He may be forced to use that running ability a lot against the Buckeye defense.

Bonus: Want to see some vintage game film of the last time these two met back in 1973? Just follow this link, but remember this is old school coaches film and not a broadcast of the game.
Old School at The Horseshoe

9/15- Boise State at Oklahoma State: This is the first ever meeting between these two schools.  For the Broncos, a win is huge for their chances to claim the New Year's Day slot for the Group of Five.  This game is the final game of Okie State's non conference slate after tune ups v. Missouri State and South Alabama.  The Cowboys will have their hands full with BSU. So much so that the Cowboys league opener the next week v Texas Tech could end up being a far easier game.

Top Five Conference Games for 2018

9/22- TCU at Texas: As mentioned before, this game comes right after the Horned Frogs play Ohio State at Jerryworld the previous week.  However, Texas will have just hosted USC.  The winner of this battle of attrition will be in driver's seat towards knocking off Oklahoma later in the season.

9/29- Iowa State at TCU: This is a classic trap game for TCU coming after tilts with Ohio State and Texas. TCU could be pretty beat up and Iowa State comes into this one relatively fresh after hosting Akron. I think we all remember how the Cyclones upset OU last year. Beware Frogs, Beware!

10/6- Oklahoma v. Texas (Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX): This game has always seemed to be a heavyweight fight and with high expectations once again for Texas, it could also be just round one with these two meeting up again in the Big XII title game.

10/13- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: Just 13 points have separated these two over the last three years.  This is a pecking order game in the league.  An Okie State win sets them up for an end of campaign gauntlet where they face Texas, OU, WVa, and TCU. A win for the Wildcats gives them momentum heading into a bye week before a tough road double dip at Oklahoma and TCU.

11/23- Oklahoma at West Virginia: This is going to be more important for the Sooners than the Mountaineers.  WVa may come into this one in tough shape as this Friday night finale comes after they have been to Texas, hosted TCU, and made a trip to Okie State in the previous three weeks.  For OU, it's the final step towards the Big XII title game.

Until next time folks, remember that no matter how a team's schedule looks, they still have to play the games.

-The Commissioner